H5N1 Avian Flu news thread

[Preciouslife1]

Most H5N1 Cases Now Linked to Human to Human Transmission
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/02..._H2H_Most.html
Recombinomics Commentary
February 4, 2006

Almost all cases of H5N1 human infection appear to have resulted from some form of direct or close contact with infected poultry, primarily chickens. In addition, a few persons may have been infected through very close contact with another infected person, but this type of transmission has not led to sustained transmission.

The above comments from the prepared statement for the Senate appropriations committee seriously underplay the involvement of human-to-human transmission of H5N1. The role was even more distorted in the actual testimony, which indicated that strong evidence of human-to-human existed for only two familial clusters. Familial clusters have made up an ever increasing percentage of the official H5N1 cases and virtually all such clusters involve human-to-human transmission among family members.

Although exposure to sick or dying poultry can be frequently linked to the index case in a cluster, this linkage does not necessarily extend to other family members. These members frequently have exposure to both the index case and poultry. To distinguish between a common poultry source and a common family member, the dates of disease onset are used. Since transmission from bird to human is rare, the likelihood of two independent transmission is low. Therefore, if the common source is poultry, the index case and other family members would be expected to develop symptoms over a short time course (1-2 days). If however, the index case transmitted the H5N1 to other family members, the time interval between disease onset in the index case and disease onset in other family members would be long (5-10 days).

The number of family clusters in the various countries reporting H5N1 outbreaks since 2004 has now exceeded thirty. Almost all of these clusters have a time gap of 5-10 days between disease onset of the index case and other family members. This gap indicates that most of the familial clusters involve human-to-human transmission.

The clusters date back to early 2004 in Vietnam and later in Thailand. By early 2005, these clusters account for almost one third of H5N1 cases. In Indonesia, the number of H5N1 patients in familial clusters grew to about two thirds of cases. The initial 15 clusters were described in a recent CDC/WHO publication. At that time, WHO changed wording in their characterization of the H5N1 outbreak. They had indicated that there was little evidence for human-to-human transmission. This changed to little evidence for efficient human-to-human transmission, acknowledging the growing number of familial cases which involved human-to-human transmission.

Recently, the size and number of these clusters grew, and WHO again changed their description from a lack of evidence for efficient human-to-human transmission to a lack of evidence for sustained human-to-human transmission. Although this terminology suggests the increased frequency has been noted by WHO, public comments and media reports still leave the impression that human-to-human transmission of H5N1 is rare or non-existent.

This impression is particularly misleading at the present time because a genetic change has been noted in H5N1 from the index case in Turkey. The change in the receptor binding domain of HA, S227N (also called S223N), increases the affinity of the HA for human receptors. This change coupled with another change, PB2 E627K, increases the efficiency of H5N1 infection in humans, especially in cold weather. These genetic changes have led to very large clusters in Turkey as well as linkage between clusters.

The linked cluster included the index case for Turkey. Index cases from familial clusters have in fact been the index cases for countries since 2005. The index case for Cambodia, Indonesia, China, Turkey, and Iraq all were familial index cases and all clusters included a 5-10 day gap in disease onset dates.

These data leave little doubt that human-to-human transmission of H5N1 is quite common and now represent the majority of human cases. Representations to the contrary are cause for concern

[Preciouslife1]

11 More Suspected Cases in Indonesia
Looks like Indonesia's problem is growing worse--

Eleven more suspected bird flu cases await WHO confirmation

JAKARTA (AFP): Indonesia, which has already registered 16 bird flu deaths, is awaiting test results from the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 more suspected infections, a health official said Sunday.

"The latest report we have shows that there has been a total of 23 cases of confirmed infection, 16 of them fatal, while we are still awaiting the result of WHO tests on 11 other probable cases, four of them fatal," said an official at the health ministry's bird flu information center.

The official, who identified himself as Nurdin, said local tests on the 11 probable cases had tested positive but that only tests conducted by the WHO laboratory in Hong Kong would officially confirm infection cases.

"But from experience, the WHO tests have only confirmed the results of our tests," Nurdin said.

The latest WHO test results obtained at the weekend showed that a 22-year-old chicken vendor who died last month and a 15-year-old teenager who died on Wednesday were Indonesia's latest deaths from the H5N1 virus, health ministry official Hariyadi Wibisono has said.

"Two more cases had also been confirmed by the Hong Kong-based laboratory, but the patients remained alive bringing the total of confirmed bird flu cases in Indonesia to 23, of which 16 have died," Wibisono told AFP.

Nurdin could not give details of the two new surviving bird flu cases.

The virus has now killed some 87 people in Asia since 2003. Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous nation, was initially accused of covering up the virus, which is transmitted by close contact with infected poultry.

Many Indonesians live with chickens around their homes, even in urban areas, creating ideal conditions for infections to pass from the birds to humans.

Experts fear that H5N1 could mutate into a form easily transmissible by humans, sparking a global pandemic that would have the potential to kill millions.


http://www.thejakartapost.com/detai...05161554&irec=0

[Preciouslife1]

from:
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N0257209.htm


U.S. experts expect to be overwhelmed by bird flu

02 Feb 2006 22:53:15 GMT

Source: Reuters





By Maggie Fox, Health and Science Correspondent

WASHINGTON, Feb 2 (Reuters) -

U.S. flu experts are resigned to being overwhelmed by an avian flu pandemic, saying hospitals, schools, businesses and the general public are nowhere near ready to cope.

Money, equipment and staff are lacking and few states have even the most basic plans in place for dealing with an epidemic of any disease, let alone the possibly imminent pandemic of H5N1 avian influenza, they told a meeting on Thursday.



While a federal plan has been out for several weeks, it lacks essential details such as guidance on when hospitals should start to turn away all but the sickest patients and when schools should close, the experts complained.



"There is no way at this time that we can even plan for this epidemic," said Dr. Roger Baxter of the University of California San Francisco and associate director of the Kaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center.



"We could be easily overwhelmed," Baxter told the meeting organized by the Infectious Diseases Society of America, the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America, the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.



"A lot of our facilities are old, with no isolation facilities," Baxter said.



H5N1 avian influenza has swept through flocks across Asia and into Europe, killing or forcing the culling of 200 million birds. It sometimes infects people and has infected 161 documented patients, killing 86 of them.



Experts say the virus is mutating steadily and poses the biggest threat yet for a long-expected global influenza pandemic if it acquires the ability to pass from person to person.



The world has not seen a flu pandemic since 1968, and that one was mild by most measures. The global public health system has crumbled as people enjoyed the respite from disease, experts say.



Now they are scrambling to fix it up, but say it is too big a job to do it quickly.



NOWHERE TO TURN

Dr. Dan Hanfling, director of emergency management and disaster medicine at the Inova Health System in Falls Church, Virginia, said hospitals in the Washington, D.C., area would be flooded with patients with nowhere to put them.



"There are going to be many, many people coming to the hospital because they are worried they may have been exposed," Hanfling said.



If there was just a 10 percent infection rate, that would mean 500,000 sick people in the Washington, D.C., area, Hanfling calculated. Some models assume that 20 percent of these people would need to be treated in hospitals.



"We are talking about finding 100,000 places," Hanfling said. "We have 7,800 staffed beds."



And hospitals are already filled to capacity with everyday illnesses.

"We'll still have heart attacks. We'll still have strokes. We'll still have babies to deliver," Hanfling told the meeting.



He cited one survey that showed only 66 percent of health care workers would show up for work if they thought patients might infect them. And an expected 25 percent could be out sick themselves, or caring for sick family members.



Dr. Trish Perl, president of the Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America and director for infection control at Johns Hopkins Hospital in Baltimore said she did a quick estimate of how many masks, for instance, a hospital would need to get through a pandemic outbreak.



A protective face mask is standard equipment for use in caring for patients with respiratory disease such as flu.



A 600-bed hospital would need 1.6 million masks to get through six weeks -- and that is assuming the hospital eases up on rules requiring workers to wear a fresh mask at each encounter with each patient, Perl said.

[Preciouslife1]

AFRICA FACES "ENORMOUS RISK"

On Thursday, US intelligence chief John Negroponte told a Senate committee looking into the range of threats to the United States that Washington was monitoring the bird flu situation in countries "where we cannot be confident that adequate information will be available through open sources."

Powell said Washington hoped the lessons learned by Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam - the epicenter of the disease - could be applied to Africa and other vulnerable regions.

The flight paths of migratory birds, blamed for the spread of bird flu, crossed eastern Africa, where countries are poor and ill-prepared for epidemics, said William Steiger, a senior US health official.

"The risk is enormous. There's no question that the migratory flyways, especially down the Rift valley, present a great deal of concern to African governments," he said.

"We have worked pretty intensively in the past few weeks to figure out inside the US government what our strategy is going to be toward Africa," said Steiger, head of the Office of Global Health Affairs at the Department of Health and Human Services.

Washington supported an emerging infections detection and response system in Kenya, and the US Agency for International Development was investing in surveillance projects in Ethiopia and Tanzania along migratory bird flyways, he added.
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Bird Flu: Anxiety Rises Over Dead Birds In Kano
Bird Flu: Anxiety Rises Over Dead Birds In Kano

http://www.independentng.com/news/nnfeb070624.htm

The Federal Government has sent samples from birds that died on a poultry farm in Kano State to the veterinary laboratory in Vom, Plateau State for testing in a bid to ascertain whether the birds were killed by the deadly H5N1 bird flu.

Junaidu Maina, Acting Director of Livestock, Federal Ministry of Agriculture, said in Abuja that the birds died in abnormally high numbers on the Sovat farm in Danbare village, Kano State adding that samples had to be sent to Vom to identify the cause of the deaths.

“From what we know for now, it’s most likely to be Newcastle disease. But we’ve sent samples just to check,” Maina said.

Newcastle disease is a highly contagious viral disease in poultry for which there is no treatment. The virus causes in worst in fections only minor illnesses in humans.

On the other hand sick birds suffering from bird flu typically develop diseases of the nervous, respiratory or reproductive systems and morbidity is usually high. The H5N1 strain of avian influenza, which has killed more than 70 people in Asia, has spread from Asia to Europe and the Middle East, but has not been detected in Africa.

Experts have warned that any outbreak of the deadly virus could have devastating consequences in Africa, where millions of people live at close quarters with poultry.

Lola Sadiq, official in charge of bird flu in the Nigerian office of the World Health Organisation (WHO) in said in Abuja that WHO was aware of the poultry deaths in Kano and was liaising with the federal ministries of agriculture and health over the issue.

She said the laboratory in Plateau would try and identify the cause of the deaths and if it was unable to do so it would send samples abroad for further testing. It was not immediately clear how long the testing would take.

The official in charge of bird flu at the Federal Ministry of Health, Jide Coker, said Nigeria had a plan of action to react to any suspected outbreak of the H5N1 virus.

Experts fear the strain, which mostly affects birds, but could mutate to a form that can easily be transmitted between people, sparking a pandemic that could kill millions.

While the strain has not yet been detected in Africa, experts say Africa is on the flight-path of migratory birds thought to carry the disease and the close proximity between poultry and humans in towns and villages provides an ideal environment for the virus to jump to humans.

Delegates to a WHO conference in Congo last month said shortage of money and scientific know how could leave Africa struggling to detect and combat bird flu.

Africa
Nigerian officials blame fowl cholera for chicken deaths

Kano, Nigeria
07 February 2006 08:12

An epidemic has killed 60 000 chickens in northern Nigeria, officials said on Monday, while attempting to calm fears that the deadly bird-flu virus had spread to the country.

Salihu Jibrin, director of veterinary services in Kano state's agriculture ministry, said initial evidence suggests that the devastating outbreak was fowl cholera, a bacterial infection, rather than influenza.

"We have so far recorded the death of 60 000 chickens in this epidemic and, from preliminary results of laboratory tests conducted on samples of the dead birds, the presence of fowl-cholera bacteria," Jibrin said.

"Further tests are being conducted at the National Veterinary Research Institute in Vom and Ahmadu Bello University Veterinary Teaching hospital in Zaria for comprehensive laboratory diagnosis," he added.

The sudden death of so many chickens, coming at a time when the world is nervously monitoring the spread of the H5N1 strain of bird flu, which can prove deadly to humans, has caused concern in northern Nigeria.

Officials have broadcast television and radio messages to try to calm such fears and place the blame on bird cholera, a disease that causes birds to die from fatigue and dehydration as they lose control of their bowels.

Shehu Bawa, the head of a team set up to monitor the disease, said that until the test results are back, a virus such as Newcastle disease, which has similar symptoms to cholera, cannot be ruled out. -- Sapa-AFP


http://www.mg.co.za/articlepage.asp...rticleid=263495

[Preciouslife1]

NIGERIA
Africa's turn to face deadly bird flu
Ola Awoniyi
Thu, 09 Feb 2006

More details on American flyways can be found at http://www.birdnature.com/flyways.html
Africa for the first time faces a catastrophic epidemic of bird flu after the deadly H5N1 strain spread to the continent, devastating poultry and threatening humans.

For the past month chickens at a farm in Jaji in northern Nigeria have been dying of the disease, which Nigerian officials at first mistook for a bacterial infection known as bird cholera, Agriculture Minister Amadu Bello said.

Now that the infection has been correctly identified at a United Nations laboratory in Italy, quarantine and culling procedures have been put in place, Bello said.

But an AFP reporter at Sambawa Farm found no sign of any quarantine operation, and international experts warned that Africa's rickety health systems might not be able to cope with a big outbreak.

WHO "very concerned"

"If the situation in Nigeria gets out of control, it will have a devastating impact on the poultry population in the region, said Samuel Jutzi, head of the UN Food and Agricultural Organisation's (FAO) animal health division.

"It will seriously damage the livelihoods of millions of people and it will increase the exposure of humans to the virus," he warned.

But traders in Kano, northern Nigeria's main commercial centre, said that similar mystery disease outbreaks have been reported across the region and that farmers were rushing sick birds to market in order to avoid a blockade.

The World Health Organisation said it was "very concerned" about the outbreak.

As South Africa and Mauritania led an expected rush to ban Nigerian poultry imports, experts warned that Africa's run-down public health infrastructure would struggle to cope.

"Worrying development"

"This is a worrying development. It means that the disease has got a foothold on the continent," Jean-Luc Angot, deputy director general of the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), told AFP.

"Africa doesn't have sufficient infrastructure for veterinary surveillance and control. We think that other countries will be affected," he warned.

In Nairobi, Phillip Muthoka, a senior member of the Kenyan health ministry's Avian Influenza Task Force, said: "Many countries have trade links with Nigeria, this is serious."

Kenya and other east African countries, which like Nigeria are threatened by migrating birds bringing flu from infected areas of Asia and Europe, are facing a drought which could make matters worse, he said.

"People are malnourished and their immune systems are down. Also, with the high rates of HIV/Aids infection, this has the potential to be a catastrophe.

"The government is cash-strapped already from the drought. If avian flu comes home to roost this is going to be an uphill battle," Muthoka warned. Culling of birds advocated

Duncan Mwangi, an immunologist with Nairobi-based International Livestock Research Institute, said that culling birds was the only way to be sure of preventing the spread of the disease.

"Now that this has been diagnosed in Africa, the disease is hitting closer to home. Migration of wild birds is still posing a threat. The only way to deal with the disease is through culling. There is no other way," he said.

Last month, at a major meeting of donors in China, the FAO warned of terrible consequences if bird flu spread to Africa from Asia and Europe, where it has killed 88 people since 1997.

FAO warned of terrible consequences

"If it were to become rooted in the African countryside, the consequences for a continent already devastated by hunger and poverty could be truly catastrophic," said FAO deputy director-general David Harcharik.

A team of FAO experts is due to leave for Nigeria on Thursday.

Bird flu spreads rapidly among poultry and wild birds, including migratory species, and can be transmitted to humans through physical contact with sick animals.

Health experts fear that the virus could, however, mutate through contact with the human influenza virus and therefore become transmissible through human-to-human contact, triggering a deadly worldwide epidemic.

The chances of such a doomsday scenario coming to pass become more likely the more cases of bird flu there are, giving a widespread African epidemic the opportunity to transform into a global health disaster.

AFP

http://iafrica.com/news/africannews/887027.htm

[Preciouslife1]

The reality that Avian flu could mutate within HIV and HIV/HCV patients is just another deadly reminder why an antiviral like Tarvacin is so needed. Tic, toc, tic, toc....it's ticking and people
are dying........

Quote:
"People are malnourished and their immune systems are down. Also, with the high rates of HIV/Aids infection, this has the potential to be a catastrophe.


Many people have been worried about HIV/AIDS patients getting bird flu, because they could carry the virus a long time and give it the chance to recombine with another flu virus. What has not been discussed much is that these people have immune deficiencies that will probably allow them to catch H5N1 much easier than a person without immune deficiencies. I would think that the HIV and malnourished population could be infected on a wide scale, even though it is primarily spreading B2H.

Even if the Cytokine Storms do not affect the HIV/AIDS/Malnourished crowd the way it does the healthy people, I believe the side effects could be deadly for this group. People with immune deficiencies tend to suffer much worse through pneumonia and other complications from sickness, because their immune systems do not react to the danger.

If the bird flu has a much easier time infecting HIV/AIDS patients, and if its effects are deadly to them, we could see a huge loss of life, even if the disease does not go H2H. There are roughly 40 million people in the world with HIV, and most of them are in Africa. We should try to keep track of the bird flu patients that also are reported to have AIDS, and see what effect the virus has on this group.

credit to Thefourhorsemen on CurEvents..... P*L*1

[Preciouslife1]

Posted by: Preciouslife1
In reply to: None Date:2/11/2006 9:57:55 AM
Post #of 4169

FYI..H5N1 in Italy and Africa:
niman
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Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 3,564

Probable H5N1 in Sicily Italy

http://www.recombinomics.com/News/0...5N1_Sicily.html

Recombinomics Commentary
February 11, 2006

Italy is testing birds for the deadly H5N1 bird flu virus after finding "probable cases" of the disease in birds in the southern island of Sicily.

A health ministry statement said that "Tests are under way for probable cases of Avian Flu in our country," and added that Health Minister Francesco Storace would brief the cabinet on developments later on Saturday.

A source close to the laboratories carrying out the tests said they involved diseased birds from Sicily, and said results of the tests were expected later on Saturday or on Sunday.

The above comments indicate H5N1 has been detected in Italy. Italian media indicates that at least two infected swans are being tested. These results are likely linked to recent results for H5N1 infected swans in Bulgaria, Greece, and Cyprus. H5N1 infected swans have been previously reported in Croatia, Romania, and Askatran.

Recent sequence data from isolates in Nigeria indicate that the H5N1 identified there is closely related to the Qinghai strain that was first detected in May 2005 at Qinghai Lake in China. It has subsequently been found in Siberia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Tula, Askatran, Ukraine, Romania, Croatia, Turkey, Iraq, and Azerbaijan.

The latest result in Italy raises serious questions about the failure to detect H5N1 in adjacent countries in Europe, the Middlle East, and Africa. Moreover, migration of birds from Qinghai Lake to northern India casts more doubt on their continual denials of H5N1. Since the H5N1 positive bar-headed geese at Qinghai Lake in May 2005 originated in India, India's continued failure to detect H5N1 raises questions about the origin of the Qinghai strain.

WHO was given added authority to investigate infectious diseases with the potential to cross international borders. Use of that authority is long overdue as countries continue to deny the obvious, further endangering the world's health.

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_Map_2006_AfricaF.html

It is worth noting that on the same day, further west of Sicily, hundreds of storks were reported to have died at two locations in southern Spain. Two days later, the first report in the coastal city of Oran, Algeria was made regarding a family with bird flu symptoms. Then 12 days later, hundreds of cattle egrets were found dead in northern Morocco. In other words, once countries open up about it, you can see unbelievably clear patterns. Personally, I think this is unrelated to Nigeria. It appears to be independent. Bird flu was already in Nigeria a month or two ago. Some of the birds in Greece, Italy and Spain have stopped and are waiting for warm weather to return north. Others however will be hooking around the west coast of Africa, through Morocco, etc. and on down through Nigeria towards South Africa. Considering that many of the countries on the west coast of Africa are in a state of complete disruption from numerous wars, do not expect to hear any more news until it reaches Ghana--either from the east or from the west or both, and then again not until Cameroon, and then South Africa. Ironically, on November 28th, bird flu was reported to be in the Southwest Province of Cameroon, but no further information was ever given, and South Africa has already had "Newcastle Outbreaks" that have devastated it's poultry industry in the last three months. Unbelievably, I read a report a couple weeks ago that one of it's tern colonies near Cape Town is completely empty for the first time in living memory--blamed on misbehaving seals.

Just a heads up for those that follow this...PL1

[Preciouslife1]

http://www.physorg.com/news10790.html

Factfile on bird flu
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is an updated factfile on H5N1 avian influenza, following the first detected outbreak of the disease in the European Union:




WHAT IS BIRD FLU? Bird flu is also called avian influenza. There are 15 strains of flu that affect birds, but the one behind the global health scare is the sub-type known as H5N1. The first known cases of bird flu were detected in Hong Kong in 1997 and also involved H5N1.

HOW IT SPREADS TO HUMANS: Almost all the human cases of bird flu have been people who were directly exposed to infected fowl. They made contact with the virus through the birds' saliva, nasal secretions and faeces, which become dry, pulverised and are then inhaled.

THE TOLL: As of February 9, the World Health Organization (WHO) had confirmed 88 deaths from H5N1 out of 165 cases of human infection. Vietnam has the most fatalities, with 42, followed by Indonesia (16), Thailand (14), China (seven), Cambodia (four), Turkey (four) and Iraq (one). This list does not include an Iraqi Kurd whose death was reported by local authorities on Monday, two Indonesian women who died Thursday and Friday respectively and a woman's death reported by China on Friday.

SYMPTOMS: Bird flu in humans causes symptoms that are like human flu, such as fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches, conjunctivitis, pneumonia and other severe respiratory diseases.

IS CHICKEN SAFE? Avian flu is not a food-borne virus, so the risk from eating properly cooked poultry is considered negligible.

THE RISK: At present, H5N1 is not easily transmitted from bird to human. In other words, a person would have to pick up a lot of virus in order to be infected. Nor is it easily passed from human to human: there have been only three suspected cases in which this is believed to have happened. The big worry is that H5N1 could pick up genes from conventional human flu viruses, mutating into a form both highly lethal and highly infectious. As it would be a radically new pathogen, no one would have any immunity to it. The mutation could occur if H5N1 co-infects a human who already has ordinary flu or the agent is picked up from poultry by an animal such as a pig that can carry both bird and regular flu strains.

PAST PANDEMICS: The 20th century saw three flu pandemics, in 1918-19, 1957-58 and 1968-69. The 1918-19 pandemic killed as many as 50 million people -- larger than the death toll from AIDS in more than two decades. Jet travel, the world's huge population today and the larger number of people with compromised immune systems (from HIV and cancer, for instance) compared with 1918 could contribute to a far heavier toll.

ECONOMIC COST: A global pandemic of any scale would cost hundreds of billions of dollars because of the disruption to economic life. The World Bank estimates a bill of 550 billion dollars (465 billion euros) for rich countries alone. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates costs for Asia ranging from 99 billion to 283 billion dollars. As a comparison, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which killed fewer than 800 people in its 2003 outbreak, cost more than 30 billion dollars.

VETERINARY CONTROLS: These are the time-honoured first line of defence in any outbreak of animal disease. The task is to identify farms where there is an outbreak of H5N1, quarantine the area, kill all fowl suspected to be in contact with it, disinfect machinery, vehicles and clothing, and bar sales of poultry products from the affected region. But these controls are only really dependable if a country has a good surveillance network and responds quickly and effectively to an outbreak. Adequate compensation, too, is essential for encouraging honest reporting by farmers.

COUNTER-MEASURES: An international conference in Beijing drew more than 1.5 billion dollars in pledges to help fight bird flu, after experts estimated that around that amount would be needed over the next three years to help poor countries shore up their defences. An action plan drawn up in November stresses greater veterinary surveillance to detect outbreaks, preventative vaccination of poultry, culling of infected flocks and compensation for farmers. Its other focus is on strengthening health monitoring systems, stockpiling of antiviral drugs to dampen the spread of an outbreak and exercises to train medical personnel and the public.

VACCINE: No definitive vaccine against the viral threat is available as no one knows the precise shape the virus would take after mutating. Several prototypes are being explored. But the risk is that they could be only partially effective or even useless because the genetic shape of the virus will have changed and thus will not be recognised by antibodies. If a pandemic does occur, the big concern is about the delay. It could take up to six months to formulate and test the right vaccine, which will only be available in limited quantities immediately thereafter. Traditionally, flu vaccines take up to nine months to manufacture, using egg-based technology, although ways of speeding this up using genetic "reverse engineering" are being intensively explored.

DRUG ARSENAL: The range of antiviral drugs is small, but especially so when it comes to bird flu. Only two are considered effective against H5N1: zanamivir (commercialised as Relenza) and oseltamivir (Tamiflu). These medications are called neuraminidase inhibitors, which block the virus from replicating. If taken within a couple of days of the onset of illness, they can ease the severity of some symptoms and reduce the duration of sickness. The WHO recommends that countries stockpile antivirals, but does not give a figure as to how big that stockpile should be. It hopes to have its own stockpile, sufficient for three million people, by early 2006. A looming worry is whether the shifting virus might become resistant to Tamiflu.

Sources: WHO, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), US National Institutes of Health (NIH), World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), Nature, British Medical Journal (BMJ), The Lancet, New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), US Department of Health and Human Resources, news reports

[Preciouslife1]

Bird Flu Discovery Stokes Fears in Africa

Posted February 11, 2006

DAKAR, Senegal -- The discovery of the fatal bird flu strain in Africa has raised concerns the continent may not be equipped to cope with the disease, especially as many villagers are unaware of the threat.

The H5N1 strain of bird flu was reported Wednesday on a commercial farm in the northern Nigerian state of Kaduna, the first time the virus has been documented in Africa. On Thursday, Nigerian authorities reported the same virus in two other states.

"Are there more out there that we do not know of?" said Juan Lubroth, a senior animal health officer at the Rome-based U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.

Beset by poverty, war and hunger, sub-Saharan Africa is particularly ill-equipped to deal with a major health crisis. It will need money, drugs and protective suits. Health authorities worry the virus may have already spread undetected to other parts of the continent.

Nigeria imposed a quarantine on poultry farms across the north and has began slaughtering birds at farms believed to be infected. Other countries like Mauritania and Gabon have announced they're blocking poultry imports from affected nations.

But officials in Ethiopia and Uganda said they don't have testing equipment to detect the H5N1 strain, which began ravaging poultry across Asia in 2003, forcing the destruction of more than 100 million birds and jumping to humans.

The World Health Organization has confirmed 88 human deaths, mostly in Asia, though the disease recently has been detected in Europe and the Middle East. Almost all the deaths have been linked to contact with infected poultry, but experts fear the virus could mutate into a form that spreads easily among humans, setting off a pandemic.

"Our fear is that most of the countries in Africa, including Ethiopia, don't have enough resources, manpower and other related necessities to tackle the problem," said Mulugeta Debalkew, a spokesman for the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

Even if the flu strain only affects birds, it could devastate the livelihoods of millions of Africans who make their living from agriculture.

If birds are killed on a large-scale in Africa "there has to be a compensation program ... that will reimburse these farmers for their losses," said Alex Thiermann, an expert for the World Organization for Animal Health in Paris.

"Otherwise, their losses are going to be immense and very quickly we are going to find that nobody is reporting" suspected bird flu cases, he said

Questions have also arisen over the time it took in Nigeria to confirm the H5N1 strain. Nigerian Agriculture Minister Adamu Bello said samples were first taken from birds on Jan. 16. The disease may have spread between then and Wednesday, when the birds were confirmed to have the strain.

Thiermann said the Nigerian farm's owner reportedly first gave the sick birds antibiotics, "clearly" showing he was not thinking bird flu could have been the culprit. That underlined the need for public awareness campaigns -- a tough challenge on a continent with poor infrastructure and high illiteracy.

In Africa, "the farmers are not thinking about avian influenza as the most likely cause," Thiermann said. "These are areas where they have high mortality in chickens due to a number of chicken diseases."

Money is also a major issue. Most African governments are deeply impoverished, crippled for years by debt and corruption.

Debalkew said Ethiopia does not even have protective suits that health and veterinary experts investigating and working to control outbreaks need to ensure they do not become infected.

In Uganda, Winyi Kaboyo of the East African country's Flu Task Force, said the government had tried to educate the public through newspaper ads, but could not afford to do the same on radio or television.

"We don't currently have enough resources ... we require more funds," Kaboyo said.

Experts from the WHO, the FAO, the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Organization for Animal Health are expected in Nigeria over the next few days to help.

But getting enough foreign experts to Africa may be difficult with experts already spread thin by bird flu outbreaks in Asia and the Middle East.

"Hopefully, we can contain it within Nigeria," Thiermann said. "Just to deal with the whole continent of Africa, I don't know where we are going to get the people to help us."

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/feat...ealth-headlines

[Preciouslife1]

February 12, 2006
News Analysis

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/12/i...agewanted=print

A Worrisome New Front
By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL and DONALD G. McNEIL Jr.
As epidemics go, it was a relatively small outbreak: 40,000 chickens died in mid-January on a commercial poultry farm in Nigeria. No humans seemed to have been infected. But to many experts on avian flu, it was the outbreak they had been dreading for months.

It was the first time the fast-moving A(H5N1) virus had been reported in Africa. And while United Nations agencies are now scrambling to form medical and veterinary response and surveillance teams, scientists say its appearance there is deeply worrisome for two reasons.

First, the continent is ill prepared to deal with epidemics, whether human or animal. Second, the Nigerian outbreak comes only a month or two before birds begin migrating north from Africa to Europe, which has so far been largely untouched by the virus.

"These are horrendous developments, whether you're a human or if you're a bird," said John Oxford, a professor of virology at Queen Mary's College in London. "Everyone wondered what would happen if avian influenza came to Africa, but no one really prepared. They waited. Now it's there — and this is not the most organized continent in the world."

World health officials say they have not had the cooperation they needed from many poor countries, even those on the flight paths of migrating birds known to carry flu. They got lab samples weeks or months after problems began — and for that reason, they worry that the disease is already much more widespread.

As late as Monday, Nigerian veterinary officials were assuring the nation that the disease was not in their country. But Juan Lubroth, a senior veterinarian at the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in Rome, said in an interview that there was strong evidence that bird flu took root in Nigeria "a few months ago." While the outbreak took place on a commercial poultry farm, he said, the virus may well have been percolating for months in backyard flocks.

"How long has it been trickling around, with five deaths here and five deaths there, and owners would possibly not be aware of the problem?" he asked.

The problem of sluggish reporting is not limited to Africa. It was common in the early months of the outbreaks in Asia, in 2003. In Azerbaijan, which reported its first cases last week, bird flu was only "picked up because of international pressure to come clean," Dr. Lubroth said, adding: "We've been repeating over and over to countries that they have to be vigilant, but in most countries, it's business as usual. They say, 'Avian influenza isn't here now — we'll deal with it when it arrives.' But then it's too late."

Maria Cheng, a spokeswoman for the World Health Organization, said her agency suspected that there might be human cases of A(H5N1) flu in Africa, but had no way to confirm that yet.
"We're getting a team ready to go," she said, "but we're waiting to get the invitation from Nigeria."

And even when scattered United Nations teams are in place, the disease could spread faster than they can track it. The health care systems of most of the continent's 52 countries are so broken down that most are unable to vaccinate children or distribute AIDS drugs without Western financial aid and technical advice.

The only laboratories on the continent with licenses from the W.H.O. and the ability to run the necessary sequencing tests on flu viruses are in Egypt and South Africa, 4,000 miles apart.

And little is known about the spread of even regular seasonal flu, said Dr. Michael L. Perdue, a scientist with the W.H.O. influenza program in Geneva. "We get samples that South Africa takes from neighboring countries," he said, "but we know very little about central Africa."

Confusion about avian flu is rife in Nigeria.

On Monday, the chief of veterinary services in Kano State assured the country that the disease that by then had killed 60,000 chickens was avian cholera — a disease with symptoms different from those of avian flu, and caused by a bacteria, not a virus. Testing in an Italian lab determined that the disease was indeed avian flu.

On Wednesday, an Agence France-Presse reporter interviewing traders in the Kano markets found that the price of chickens had dropped to $2 from $6 because farmers were dumping their birds on the market before they died or were culled.

By Friday, The Daily Sun, a large national newspaper, was reporting under the headline "Bird Flu Scare Grips Nigeria" that government ministers were shunning chicken in favor of beef and fish at banquets, apparently unaware that cooked chicken is safe.

The paper also interviewed five Nigerian doctors, all of whom said there was no treatment for the disease. That is not correct, though the usual treatment, the antiviral drug Tamiflu, is expensive and in short supply.

Also on Friday, a BBC News reporter visited one of the northern farms where 20,000 birds had died. Although the Nigerian Health Ministry had announced that the farms were quarantined and being disinfected, he reported that basic safety measures were being ignored. Carcasses were being burned in the open, letting infectious feathers and dander spread downwind. The farm workers doing the culling wore their regular overalls and had no protective gear. Villagers were still entering the property to draw well water.

Northern Nigeria is one of the world's last outposts of endemic polio, in part because people in Kano were long told by local leaders that the vaccine was unsafe. The polio eradication drive going on there now could be a boon in the effort to counter avian flu.

Dr. David L. Heymann, who is in charge of the W.H.O. antipolio campaign, said the 300 Nigerian health workers now trained to spot paralysis cases in children and collect fecal samples for polio tests could be retrained to look for cases of flu and pneumonia and possibly collect nasal swabs.

"They have vehicles and cellphones, so they're a valuable resource," he said. "It's a logical piggyback."

[Preciouslife1]

From Dr. Niman and Recombinomics:

PITTSBURGH, Feb. 17 /PRNewswire/ -- Recombinomics is issuing a new prediction and warning of a likely alteration in the avian influenza H5N1 hemagglutinin gene. Like the warning/prediction issued on October 22nd, 2005, this new alteration will increase the virus' affinity for human receptors and lead to more efficient transmission of H5N1 to humans. The company has notified the WHO of its prediction and warning regarding the near term likelihood of this genetic alteration occurring.

In October, Recombinomic's prediction/warning was based upon H5N1 entering the Middle East via migratory birds, where another avian influenza, H9N2 was endemic. Recombinomics, utilizing its patent pending approach, predicted that the H gene in H5N1 would exchange genetic information with the H gene in H9N2 and would acquire the genetic change S227N (also called S223N). This alteration had been previously shown to increase the affinity of H5N1 for human receptors. In late December 2005, the first human infections by the Qinghai strain of H5N1 were reported in Turkey. S227N was detected in the index case for that outbreak with six additional cases confirmed four of whom
died.

Today, Recombinomics is predicting a similar change in the adjacent
position of the H5N1 virus' receptor binding domain. The donor sequences are again on the H, but in H1N1 European swine sequences. The new genetic change, G228S, has also been previously shown to increase the affinity for human receptors. Like H9N2 in the Middle East, H1N1 is endemic in swine populations in Europe. Infection by H5N1 in H1N1 infected swine will allow the viruses to exchange genetic information via recombination and allow H5N1 to acquire S228N. The region of identity between H5N1 and H1N1 is downstream from the
S227N position, so H5N1, with and without the S227N change, can acquire this new sequence. This sequence acquisition by the H5N1 virus will also lead to more efficient transmission to humans.

"H5N1 is migrating into areas where it is encountering unique influenza
sero-types it has not encountered while largely confined to Asia over the past few years. This expanded geographical reach allows H5N1 to exchange genetic material with novel donor sequences, which under the appropriate selection pressures, enables the genetic changes to become fixed in the genome of the virus. H5N1 is in the process of acquiring genetic information that allows for more efficient infections of humans", said Recombinomics President, Dr. Henry Niman.

H5N1, like most rapidly evolving viruses, uses homologous recombination to create novel genes that enhance the ability of the virus to evolve and remain competitively viable. Recombinomics' proprietary approach predicts these changes and identifies novel gene targets for new vaccines, which in turn allows manufacturers to develop vaccine in advance of the emergence of new genetically altered, and potentially pandemic viral strains.

[Preciouslife1]

Bird Flu Spreads to India; Iraq Reports Second Death From Virus
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Bird flu spread to India, affecting dozens of poultry farms in the western part of the country, while Iraq reported a second human fatality from avian influenza, pushing the monthly global death tally to a two-year high.

The lethal H5N1 strain was found in chickens at as many as 52 farms in the Nandurbar district of Maharashtra, Anees Ahmed, the state's animal husbandry minister, said by telephone today. All poultry at the farms will be slaughtered, he said. While no people are known to have been infected, some are being kept under observation, said India's Health Secretary P.K. Hota.

The outbreak in India, the world's second most-populous nation with 1.1 billion people, comes a day after the World Health Organization said a 39-year-old Iraqi man who died on Jan. 28 had tested positive for bird flu. The man was the uncle of Iraq's first bird flu case, a 15-year-old girl who died Jan. 17.

New outbreaks in birds are being reported daily across Europe, the Middle East and western Asia, creating more opportunity for human infection and increasing the risk the virus will mutate into a pandemic form. The latest death in Iraq and another reported today in Indonesia bring to 11 the number of human fatalities confirmed this month, the highest since February 2004, when 14 deaths were reported.

``We don't know, but it might only take a very limited number of mutations for it to eventually be transmissible efficiently from human to human,' potentially triggering a pandemic, Albert Osterhaus, head of the Department of Virology at the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, said by phone yesterday.

Infected Fowl

A total of 91 of the 169 people known to have been infected with the H5N1 strain since late 2003 have died, mainly in Southeast Asia, according to World Health Organization's Web site, last updated on Feb. 13. Most of the people who have contracted the virus handled infected poultry or came in contact with their excrement. Cooking meat and eggs properly kills the virus, according to the Geneva-based organization.

In Hong Kong, where H5N1 first sickened people in 1997, agriculture authorities are undertaking more tests on a magpie found dead in Mong Kok suspected of having the virus, the local government said in a statement today. A magpie found dead in Kowloon's urban Sham Shui Po area yesterday tested positive for H5N1 today, the statement said.

In Indonesia, whose eight fatalities in 2006 give it the highest death tally this year, a 40-year-old woman is being treated for symptoms of bird flu at the Sulianti Saroso Hospital. She is the second suspected patient to be admitted in three days, Ilham Patu, a doctor at the Jakarta hospital, said yesterday.

EU Outbreaks

Tests by the WHO confirmed that a 23-year-old man who died last week had contracted the virus, Hariadi Wibisono, director of vector-borne disease control at the country's health ministry said by telephone today. That's the country's 19th H5N1 fatality.

Avian flu has swept across the European Union in the past 10 days, with outbreaks identified in Germany, Greece, Austria, Italy, Hungary and Slovenia, as well as in Turkey, Iran, Russia and Azerbaijan. Egypt is the second country in Africa, after Nigeria, to report infected birds.

There is growing concern that the H5N1 virus may spread to other countries in West Africa, after the discovery of the virus in Nigeria earlier this month. Niger directly borders the affected areas of Nigeria and has more than 2 million people vulnerable to acute hunger, the Rome-based UN Food & Agriculture Organization said in a statement yesterday.

``If a poultry epidemic should develop beyond the boundaries of Nigeria, the effects would be disastrous for the livelihoods and the food security of millions of people,' said Joseph Domenech, FAO's chief veterinary officer, who is now in Nigeria.

Nigeria

Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo set up a crisis management center in the presidential villa to receive, coordinate and disseminate information regarding the control of avian flu, the government said on its Web site yesterday. UN agencies, including the WHO and FAO, and aid agencies of the U.S. and EU will also assist, the statement said.

Nigeria's Information Minister Frank Nweke Jr. has ordered all veterinarians on vacation back to work immediately to join in the management of the crisis. Britain donated 15,000 protective kits to help Nigeria in culling and disposing of infected birds, the Nigerian government said in a separate statement yesterday.

A wild duck found dead in Ain in central-eastern France, tested positive for an H5 avian-flu subtype, the French agriculture ministry said yesterday. France doesn't plan to destroy birds because the virus hasn't spread to poultry farms, Agriculture Minister Dominique Bussereau told journalists today.

Egypt

H5N1 was identified for the first time in Vienna, four days after Austria reported its first case, Agence France-Presse reported today. The lethal strain of avian influenza killed a swan in Vienna's northern suburb of Floridsdorf, AFP said, citing an unidentified municipal spokesman.

The virus was found for the first time in Egypt, the government said yesterday. Seven infections were found in poultry in the provinces of Cairo, the capital; its southern suburb, Giza; and Minya, to the south, the government said in a statement published by the official news service MENA.

An outbreak of H5N1 in migratory birds probably began in Azerbaijan on Jan. 29 in three coastal locations near the city of Baku on the Caspian Sea, Ismayil Murshud Gasanov, the country's head of veterinary services, said in a Feb. 15 report to the World Organization for Animal Health.

The World Health Organization said samples from additional patients under investigation in Iraq are being tested in Cairo and results are expected within the next few days. Duplicate samples were being sent to a WHO collaborating laboratory in the U.K. for further testing and analysis, the United Nations agency said yesterday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000085&sid=aYSgiey7ZN3E&refer=europe

[Preciouslife1]

Deadly strain of bird flu virus hits India, France
India testing 8 people in area where 50,000 birdsDeadly strain of bird flu virus hits India, France
India testing 8 people in area where 50,000 birds have died from virus
An official sprays disinfectant on a chicken coop during their door-to-door search for poultries in South Jakarta, Indonesia, on Saturday.

Nightly News• Bird flu precautions in Europe
Feb. 16: European governments take steps to guard against bird flu because of a growing number of dead swans and the risk that migratory birds will spread the disease. NBC's Jim Maceda reports.

• Bird flu in Germany
• Bird flu fears in Turkey
• Containing Europe's bird flu outbreak
• Bird flu virus found in U.S. turkeys

INTERACTIVE

Updated: 3:27 p.m. ET Feb. 18, 2006
BOMBAY, India - India and France each announced their first cases of bird flu on Saturday as tests confirmed birds infected with the deadly H5N1 strain.

The French government on Saturday confirmed the country's first case of the lethal H5N1 bird flu virus, following tests on a wild duck found dead in a southeastern village. The duck was found Monday in a bird reserve some 20 miles northeast of Lyon, France's third-largest city, the Agriculture Ministry said.

In India, eight people were being checked for the disease after tests on poultry in a western state showed they were infected with the deadly H5N1 strain. About 50,000 birds have died in the area in the last few days and samples sent to a government laboratory confirmed bird flu in the western Maharashtra state, local animal husbandry minister Anees Ahmed told Reuters.

“We are treating it as an emergency,” Ahmed said.

India’s Health Ministry said up to 500,000 birds would be culled in western Maharashtra state in response to the disease.

Ahmed said 200 veterinary doctors had been sent to the affected district of Nandurbar. Officials also banned trade in poultry in a six-mile radius around the outbreak.

Federal Health Secretary P.K. Hota said eight people were being tested for the H5N1 virus while four more are being kept under observation.

“We are testing eight humans for bird flu virus in the affected area in Maharashtra. Their blood samples have been sent to testing. Four, including three children, are being kept under observation,” Hota told Reuters on Saturday.

An emergency meeting of the cabinet secretariat was called in New Delhi, a TV report said.

India is the fifth largest producer of eggs in the world. Livestock and poultry is one of the fastest-growing sectors in the country.

Not cluster case
In Indonesia, bird flu claimed its 19th human victim when tests showed a 23-year-old market worker who died a week ago had the H5N1 virus.

His death takes the number of known human cases of the disease worldwide to 171 and the death toll to 93. Two hundred million birds across Asia, parts of the Middle East, Europe and Africa have died of the virus or been culled.

The latest Indonesian casualty was not among the so-called “cluster” cases Indonesia has experienced, where several members of the same family become infected by the virus.

So far most victims of bird flu globally have had direct or indirect contact with chickens, but there are fears the virus will mutate into a strain easily passed among people, causing a pandemic in which millions could die.

Bird flu has also spread deep into Europe with the first likely case in France—Europe’s biggest poultry producer.

Farm Minister Dominique Bussereau said it was 98.8 percent sure that a duck found in eastern France had died of the H5N1 strain, which is transmissible to humans.

President Jacques Chirac said on Saturday the government will be vigilant and ready to act on a possible outbreak.

“It is a situation which we have to take with calm, but which also has to be taken very seriously,” Chirac told a news conference in Bangkok.

Several wild ducks were found dead on Monday near Lyon in a region famous for the quality of its chickens. Test results for one of the ducks showed the presence of bird flu, the H5 virus, and tests for the H5N1 strain were underway, Bussereau said.

Earlier this week, France extended its ban on keeping poultry outside to the whole of the country, saying there was a higher risk from bird flu following recent cases in Europe.

More discoveries
Austria found two cases of deadly H5N1 bird flu virus near Vienna on Saturday, raising the total number of cases there to seven and prompting a nationwide order to confine poultry indoors, the health ministry said.

Health Minister Maria Rauch-Kallat told a news conference that a dead swan found in the Vienna suburb of Donaustadt and a dead duck found in nearby Lower Austria province had tested positive for suspected H5N1 infection.

She said a poultry protection zone already established in southern Austria, where four swans and a duck tested positive for H5N1 earlier this week, had been extended throughout the Alpine republic as a result of Saturday’s discoveries.

In Bulgaria, authorities put a man in an isolation chamber and were testing him for bird flu on Saturday after two of his ducks died, but said he was not showing symptoms of the disease.

Bulgaria detected its first outbreak of the H5N1 strain in a wild swan on the Danube River town of Vidin, close to the Romanian border, at the end of January and has since stepped up measures to avoid it spreading.

Denmark, which has so far not recorded any cases of H5N1, said on Saturday tests on 17 dead birds proved negative. Results of tests on more dead birds are expected on Tuesday.

Bird flu hit an Egyptian chicken farm near Cairo on Saturday and the authorities decided to cull all 10,000 birds there, the state news agency MENA said.

Egypt reported its first cases of bird flu on Friday but all of the seven chickens infected were domestic fowl, not on large farms. No humans have contracted the virus in Egypt.

Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif advised people who breed poultry at home to get rid of them to prevent the spread of bird flu.

[Preciouslife1]

Recombinomics Inc. Predicts A New Genetic Change In The H5N1 (Avian Flu) Virus
Dr. Niman vindicated again
http://news.biocompare.com/newsstory.asp?id=122097

Recombinomics is issuing a new prediction and warning of a likely alteration in the avian influenza H5N1 hemagglutinin gene. Like the warning/prediction issued on October 22nd, 2005, this new alteration will increase the virus' affinity for human receptors and lead to more efficient transmission of H5N1 to humans. The company has notified the WHO of its prediction and warning regarding the near term likelihood of this genetic alteration occurring.
In October, Recombinomic's prediction/warning was based upon H5N1 entering the Middle East via migratory birds, where another avian influenza, H9N2 was endemic. Recombinomics, utilizing its patent pending approach, predicted that the H gene in H5N1 would exchange genetic information with the H gene in H9N2 and would acquire the genetic change S227N (also called S223N). This alteration had been previously shown to increase the affinity of H5N1 for human receptors. In late December 2005, the first human infections by the Qinghai strain of H5N1 were reported in Turkey. S227N was detected in the index case for that outbreak with six additional cases confirmed four of whom died.
Today, Recombinomics is predicting a similar change in the adjacent position of the H5N1 virus' receptor binding domain. The donor sequences are again on the H, but in H1N1 European swine sequences. The new genetic change, G228S, has also been previously shown to increase the affinity for human receptors. Like H9N2 in the Middle East, H1N1 is endemic in swine populations in Europe. Infection by H5N1 in H1N1 infected swine will allow the viruses to exchange genetic information via recombination and allow H5N1 to acquire S228N. The region of identity between H5N1 and H1N1 is downstream from the S227N position, so H5N1, with and without the S227N change, can acquire this new sequence. This sequence acquisition by the H5N1 virus will also lead to more efficient transmission to humans.
"H5N1 is migrating into areas where it is encountering unique influenza sero-types it has not encountered while largely confined to Asia over the past few years. This expanded geographical reach allows H5N1 to exchange genetic material with novel donor sequences, which under the appropriate selection pressures, enables the genetic changes to become fixed in the genome of the virus. H5N1 is in the process of acquiring genetic information that allows for more efficient infections of humans", said Recombinomics President, Dr, Henry Niman.
H5N1, like most rapidly evolving viruses, uses homologous recombination to create novel genes that enhance the ability of the virus to evolve and remain competitively viable. Recombinomics' proprietary approach predicts these changes and identifies novel gene targets for new vaccines, which in turn allows manufacturers to develop vaccine in advance of the emergence of new genetically altered, and potentially pandemic viral strains.
About Recombinomics, Inc. -- The Company was founded by Dr. Henry Niman, a former Scripps Institute Assistant Member, based on his pioneering work in the area of viral evolution. Dr. Niman's research identified recombination as the underlying mechanism driving rapid genetic change, allowing him to file a series of patents based on a deep understanding of this paradigm shifting process. Recombinomics is in the process of commercializing its patent-pending approach to significantly improve the standard vaccine development process. Recombinomics, through its analysis and commentary section of its website (http://www.recombinomics.com ), has been consistently ahead of both the scientific community and government agencies in anticipating the genetic evolution and geographic expansion of H5N1.
CONTACT: Dr. Henry Niman, President, Recombinomics, Inc., 1-866-973- 2662,henry_niman@recombinomics.com
Web site: http://www.recombinomics.com//

[Preciouslife1]

A flu pandemic similar to the 1918 outbreak which killed 50 million people a year could be on its way to the UK following the discovery of the deadly H5N1 strain across the English Channel.

John Oxford, Professor of Virology at Barts, claims the likelihood of a human avian flu pandemic was "high and within a span of, say, 18 months".

"I'm not alone in thinking that because, again, the World Health Organisation has begged 250 governments around the world - most of which have ignored them - to take this view on and prepare for this outbreak.

"Because what we do not want is either a New Orleans situation or a Tsunami situation - that is you could predict something was going to happen but you don't do anything about it to prepare."

The relatively small number of deaths so far do not mean the current outbreak will not pose a major risk insists Prof Oxford.

Back in 1918 the flu pandemic, which killed 50 million people in a year, also came from a bird in France, and started with just 50 deaths. The similarities are of great concern according to the Professor.

"I still personally find it pretty alarming."

"That is the danger with influenza - compared to any other virus I know - that it can suddenly transform itself, reinvent itself and spread around the world."

Prof Oxford maintained "rather more scientific nations than our own" like Holland can calculate when wild birds were migrating over them and pulled domestic poultry inside.

"That is the sort of thing you can do, in other words biosecurity," he said.

"The reason we are not doing it here, it just escapes me, quite frankly."

The Government have now acknowledged the increased risk, and Ben Bradshaw, the junior minister at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, has today warned the public and the poultry industry to remain vigilant.

Poultry keepers have been urged to house birds indoors if needed, and to report suspicious deaths and take bio-security measures following confirmation that a dead bird near Lyon had the virus.

Mr Bradshaw says the Government are taking increased measures, including extra surveillance within the last 24 hours.

He told GMTV's The Sunday Programme: "It's not inevitable but it is clear, obviously, that it's more likely than it was when it was further away.

"The veterinary advice is the risk of imminent infection in the UK is still low but we must remain vigilant."

He added: "We are appealing to poultry keepers to be ready to house their birds should such an order be issued, which would happen if there were an outbreak to be found in this country."

He said that where the disease was discovered in France and Germany was not on migratory flight paths that carried on to the UK, but poultry keepers should monitor their flocks and report suspicious deaths.

"The most important thing is to identify an outbreak quickly," he added.

Defence Secretary John Reid said the Government had taken every precaution necessary.

"The difficulty if bird flu ever transfers to humans - and it hasn't yet so don't let's panic - if it does, up until the point that it does and mixes with human flu it isn't possible to have a vaccine in advance," he told BBC1's Sunday AM.

"It isn't possible to have a vaccine in advance. The most you can do is prepare and have a type of pill you take which diminishes the symptoms after it arrives.

"But it hasn't arrived. Don't let's panic. And I'm sure that the Government has got all necessary measures there."

The announcement in France comes as the disease spread throughout Europe.

In Austria, authorities are ordering all poultry to be kept indoors following strong indications that a wild swan found dead in the capital Vienna would test positive for H5N1.

Germany announced another 28 wild birds had been found to have the deadly strain of bird flu, with hundreds more being tested.

Greece, Italy and Slovenia have also notified outbreaks, and results are awaited on samples from Austria and Hungary sent to the EU's testing laboratory in Weybridge, Surrey.

Outside Europe, India announced its first cases of H5N1 in chickens after 30,000 birds died in the past two weeks in Navapur, Maharashtra and some tested positive for the disease.

Professor Colin Blakemore, chief executive of the Medical Research Council, said bird flu in Britain was not "inevitable".

However, he said: "The risk assessment suggests that certainly the probability is a little higher than we thought a few weeks ago."

Prof Blakemore told ITV1's Jonathan Dimbleby programme there was "absolutely no evidence" that the disease can be contracted by eating infected animals.

"What seems to be required at the moment for these rare human cases seems to be very intimate, close contact between humans and infected chickens," he said.

That meant there was a potential risk to those handling poultry, Prof Blakemore said.

"That would be risk if the infection were to spread to chickens," he said.

Shadow chancellor George Osborne called for a contingency exercise to test Britain's defences to be brought forward from April.

"Given Bird Flu has been discovered in France, on our border, I think and the Conservative Party argues, this should be brought forward," he told BBC1's Politics Show.

"We should test our systems now.

"The other point I make is there needs to be much more public information here.

"There has been some communication with large holders of poultry.

"But there are many people who have small numbers of chickens and things at home.

"A better public information campaign to say this is exactly what is going to happen if we have a Bird Flu case in Britain I think is called for now."

Dr Freda Scott-Park, of the British Veterinary Association, told BBC Radio 4's World This Weekend that "significant amounts of surveillance" were already under way.

"With this new and renewed threat, a bird affected, a duck infected in France, we are going to push the surveillance levels of wild birds up again," she said.

"We are going to have to talk to people on a daily, even an hourly basis, just to see how the situation develops."

Shadow environment secretary Peter Ainsworth said the public needed to know the lessons of Foot and Mouth had been learned.

"If I were in the Government's shoes I'd have armies of advisers and vets and scientists providing advice on what to do and it is not for me to second-guess their judgment," he said.

"What I think is pressing at the moment is a perceived lack of awareness in the public and amongst poultry owners themselves about what might be required were there to be an outbreak.

"And I think the key thing we are looking for the Government to do at the moment is to put right that public information deficit."

Mr Ainsworth added: "The fact is that we are talking about a Government department that has less than a glowing track-record in dealing with outbreaks of animal disease.

"But let's hope that is behind us and that now we have some really clear contingency plans in place and that means knowing in advance, that means being prepared.

"And I think that is where the problem is at the moment. There is a lot of confusion, for example, ministers talk about people bringing birds in doors.

"Well if anyone thinks that taking their chickens into their home is going to be the right thing to do they are sadly mistaken."

Animal welfare minister Ben Bradshaw said there had been a contingency plan in place for three and a half years that had been approved by the Tories and the NFU.

"We are satisfied we have got a good place. We think we have learned the lessons of previous animal disease outbreaks," he told the World This Weekend.

Mr Bradshaw said poultry would only be ordered inside once the disease reached this country.

However, there will be an "urgent review" of arrangements if wild birds are found with the disease on a migratory route crossing Britain.

"Neither of those two conditions is yet met. We don't have an outbreak in wild birds in this country, we don't have an outbreak on a migratory route," he said.

"The secret to this is to identify it quickly, to contain it in one place and then to eradicate it.

"In fact, both the Dutch and the Germans several months ago, back in the early autumn, brought all their birds indoors - we thought rather precipitously - and then a few weeks later had to let them out again.

"Now that caused a great deal of expense, unnecessarily, and a great deal of inconvenience to their industry."

"We think we have got a good plan, it is based on a scientific risk assessment, we are keeping the farmers and the poultry keepers informed and we are also asking the public for help."

Mr Bradshaw added: "We are confident. We aren't complacent but we think we have got a good plan, we think the poultry industry are very well prepared."